Comments like “immigrants are poisoning the blood of the country” or Donald Trump’s use of the word “vermin,” referring to his enemies. These are just the latest in an endless stream of remarks that raise the blood pressure of citizens and create an almost debilitating fear that Trump will become our next president.
Trump’s followers dance with glee. After all, one of the greatest draws to the former president is “to stick it to Dems.”
It’s working. Democrats are beside themselves, believing that if Trump wins a second term, his revenge will inextricably damage our democracy.
The fear is not unfounded — depressing polls, illegal immigrants at the southern border, a crisis in the Middle East and Biden’s age. All are trigger points setting off an uptick in adrenalin.
A Trump presidency does risk severe damage to our democracy. But, the obsession with fear and anxiety can blind Democrats to a more realistic assessment of the political state almost one year before the next inauguration.
As a psychologist, I know that living in the catastrophe of the future produces anxiety, stymies problem-solving, and can create a group malaise that is self-perpetuating.
The election is 10 months away, and Trump must navigate many obstacles to win. The most significant is his legal issues, a challenge he has thus far consistently lost.
In 2018, a federal court approved a $25 million settlement with students who said Trump University duped them.
Judges in 60 court cases heard Trump’s claim of widespread election fraud, and all 60 were dismissed as lacking evidence.
In May 2023, Trump was found liable for sexually abusing columnist E. Jean Carroll. Found guilty of defaming her, Trump was ordered to pay Carroll $5 million. True to his character, the former president has continued his action. The court is now considering a second defamation award.
Situations such as his trial for a scheme to falsify documents related to hush-money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels would warrant headlines for any other presidential candidate. For Trump, it’s more like a day at the office.
Trump has been found guilty of “persistent and repeated fraud” by New York Supreme Court 1st Judicial District judge Arthur Engoron. The sentencing portion of this case will determine financial liability and could cost Trump and his business hundreds of millions of dollars. He could be permanently barred from New York’s real estate industry.
Trump’s legal problems thus far have been misdemeanors, not felonies. That is about to change. Waiting in the wings is a slew of trials, historically unimaginable. Many could result in prison sentences, some carrying maximum sentences of up to 20 years.
Trump will have to literally “run the table” to offset the effect of the accusations against him, which is unlikely if his recent legal history is any predictor. The trend line is solid.
Should Trump be convicted of any felony charges, a small but significant number of his supporters will defect from the former president. This event would dynamically change the election.
Whether a felony conviction will influence the judgment of independents and Democrats reluctant to support Biden is to be determined. However, the probability that the negative effect of Trump’s legal issues is damaging is as good as the likelihood that the current election polls are accurate.
Polls before the 2020 and the 2022 elections looked ominous for the Democrats, yet they, not Trump, won both.
For Democrats, there is reason for concern. But living in fear of future catastrophe without a balanced perspective is a formula for emotional disaster.
A healthier alternative is for Democrats to take action, no matter how small. Even sincerely listening without criticism to a politically undecided friend is worth the effort. It’s wise to look for areas of agreement and listen without proselytizing.
Catastrophizing, on the other hand, is wasteful and functionally useless.
