If President Biden were to win the 2024 election, he would be 86 years old at the end of that term and constitutionally forbidden from another term.
If Donald Trump were to win the 2024 election, he would be 83 years old at the end of his second term, and quite uncertain to leave office if past behavior is any indicator. Age will be a prominent factor in 2028. But in Trump’s case, his departure would not be guaranteed.
Rules and institutional tradition have not restricted him thus far and that is unlikely to change. This means there is a reasonable concern that Trump, like others with dictatorial patterns, could extend his term well beyond 2028 should he win in November. Voters risk putting the former president in office for as long as he wishes to stay.
Article 22 of the Constitution clearly limits a U.S. president to two terms. However, we have already seen Trump and his allies in Congress attempt to manipulate the Electoral College and the traditional transfer of power process. We cannot be confident that we are safe from similar manipulations. It may be difficult to revoke a constitutional amendment such as the 22nd, but authoritarian leaders have repeatedly done so.
Vladimir Putin is an example. Putin has served as president or prime minister since 1999. He came to office after Boris Yeltsin’s resignation in 1999, serving as prime minister until 2008, when term limits restricted his time. He was replaced by Dmitry Medvedev, who was universally believed to be a front for Putin.
Putin returned to the presidency in 2012, heavily thought to be marked by allegations of fraud. He was re-elected in 2018 and extended his rule in 2021 when he signed into law a constitutional amendment allowing him to run for re-election twice more, potentially allowing him to remain president until 2036.
In the world of dictators or highly authoritarian leaders, altering term limits is common. Turkey’s president, Tayyip Erdogan, modified his constitution and may rule till 2034. Trump has expressed admiration for Putin and Erdogan.
Trump is authoritarian and capable of similar action. He has openly declared he expects to alter institutions, such as removing 50,000 civil servants and replacing them with employees who have allegiance to him.
He has already stated that his opponents will pay a price for opposing his leadership. He has clarified that this includes modifying the justice system with appointments to those willing to adhere to his dictates, including clearing all indictments against him.
If Trump chooses to stay in office beyond 2028, several questions and concerns become valid: Much has been written about Biden’s verbal miscues and physical slowness. More recently, some notice has been given to signs of Trump’s cognitive dysfunction and potential decline. But very little publicity has been given the fact that Fred Trump, Donald’s father, was diagnosed with dementia at age 86, with likely dysfunction before that. If the former president does not relinquish his presidency, the United States will be ruled by an authoritarian with a higher-than-average risk of cognitive impairment.
Dementia is not strictly hereditary. It does occur at a higher level in families with a history of dementia. Also, lifestyle is scientifically related to the likelihood of dementia. Trump, known for his poor eating habits, weight issues and sedentary activity, is increasingly susceptible as he ages.
Americans believe they can remove a president from office in the next election. That may not be true if Trump is elected in 2024. Like politicians with dictatorial styles before him and his history of attempting to alter the 2020 election, the 2028 election may not be free and fair. Voters in 2024 could be electing a president for much longer than four more years, with all the baggage and risk that such a vote entails.
Of course, the above is speculative. But it should be seriously considered as plausible and possible.
Those voting for Trump in 2024 are naïve if they believe he is sure to serve just four more years. Authoritarians and dictators ignore the inconvenience of rules and age.
