A recent poll by El Nuevo Día has revealed a remarkable shift in Puerto Rico’s political landscape: For the first time, sovereignty options — independence and free association — are tying statehood in voter support.
According to the survey, 44 percent of Puerto Rican voters support statehood, while a combined 44 percent favor sovereignty, with 25 percent backing free association and 19 percent supporting independence. This development represents a significant moment in Puerto Rico’s political evolution and challenges the long-standing dominance of statehood as the primary alternative to Puerto Rico’s current territorial status.
Historically, Puerto Rican plebiscites have shown a strong preference for statehood, with pro-sovereignty options often trailing far behind. However, this new poll demonstrates a significant shift in public sentiment, with support for sovereignty growing at an unprecedented rate. The 44 percent combined support for free association and independence starkly contrasts previous referendums, such as the 2020 status plebiscite where statehood received 52.5 percent of the vote, while the sovereignty options lagged well behind.
This new poll reflects the increasing appeal of sovereignty among Puerto Ricans who seek greater control over their political, economic and cultural future. Free association, which would maintain Puerto Rico’s connection to the United States via a Compact of Free Association while granting significant sovereignty, appears to resonate particularly with voters disillusioned by the limitations of the current territorial arrangement. Independence has also gained traction, particularly among younger voters.
One of the most striking findings in the poll is the overwhelming support for sovereignty among young adults aged 18 to 34. In this demographic, independence outpaces statehood by a wide margin, with 41 percent of young voters supporting independence compared to 27 percent for statehood. This generational divide marks a clear break from older generations, where statehood still holds a stronger appeal.
The youth vote is particularly significant because it signals the potential for a long-term political transformation. As younger Puerto Ricans demand a new vision for Puerto Rico’s future, their preference for sovereignty could shape the course of future political movements and elections. This rising generation, more educated and connected to global movements for self-determination and less influenced by historical fears and allegiances to the status quo, is positioning itself as a driving force for change.
The poll also reveals a growing disconnect between voters affiliated with the pro-status quo Popular Democratic Party and the party’s leadership. While the PPD has traditionally championed continuing the island’s territorial colonial status, a significant portion of its voter base now favors sovereignty.
Among PPD-affiliated voters, 63 percent said they would vote for free association if a status referendum were held today. In stark contrast, the PPD leadership continues to embrace colonial rule and resist embracing free association as an official party platform.
This disconnect highlights the internal struggle within the PPD, which is facing increasing pressure to align with its pro-sovereignty voters or risk becoming irrelevant in the broader political conversation. With so many PPD voters favoring sovereignty, the party risks fracturing, potentially leading to a new political movement centered on sovereignty, free association and social justice. Such a development could significantly reshape Puerto Rico’s political landscape, challenging the PPD’s dominance and the statehood movement.
The new poll also shows a decline in support for statehood, which now stands at 44 percent, down from 50 percent in the 2020 plebiscite and 97 percent in the 2017 plebiscite. This massive drop reflects a growing disillusionment with the statehood movement, particularly among younger voters and those seeking greater sovereignty, economic development and competent government. For many, statehood has become synonymous with corruption, poverty and unfulfilled promises, as Puerto Rico’s economic struggles and political challenges persist despite decades of lobbying for statehood.
Moreover, the rise in support for sovereignty options indicates that Puerto Ricans are increasingly looking beyond statehood for solutions to Puerto Rico’s problems.
Free association offers the prospect of sovereignty and greater political control while maintaining a dignified political relationship with the United States, while independence appeals to those who want self-determination. As support for sovereignty grows, statehood proponents may find it increasingly difficult to maintain their hold on the electorate.
The results of this poll have profound implications for Puerto Rico’s political future. The growing support for sovereignty, particularly among young voters, suggests that the island’s long-standing debate over its status is entering a new phase. No longer is statehood the clear front-runner; sovereignty options are now tied with statehood in voter support, signaling a potential shift in Puerto Rico’s relationship with the United States.
For Americans, this change is significant. It represents a potential turning point in the century-old debate over Puerto Rico’s status and raises important questions about the future of the U.S.-Puerto Rico relationship. As sovereignty options gain traction, particularly among the younger generation, it becomes increasingly clear that Puerto Ricans seek a path that offers greater control over their destiny.
The El Nuevo Día’s poll reflects a historical moment for Puerto Rico. The rise in support for sovereignty, the declining enthusiasm for statehood, and the deepening divide within the PPD all point to a future where Puerto Ricans will increasingly advocate for sovereignty. For the first time, Puerto Rico stands on the cusp of real political change, and the American public should take notice.
As Puerto Rico’s political conversation evolves, the question is no longer whether sovereignty will gain support — it is how soon it will become the dominant force shaping Puerto Rico’s future.
