Suppose the global community wants to hit its net-zero goals by 2050. In that case, it will cost $150 trillion — a figure provided by the International Renewable Energy Association (IRENA), which also says that green use must triple by 2030.
The dollar amount is staggering. But another way of framing the situation is to consider the cost of inaction. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said climate and weather-related disasters cost $165 billion last year, partly because of warmer temperatures, more atmospheric moisture and warmer oceans — the fuel that spins hurricanes out of control.
The news is mixed. While Accenture says about 34 percent of the world’s largest corporations have carbon neutrality goals, 93 percent of them are not on pace to hit their 2030 targets. Countries added 300 gigawatts of renewables last year, meaning green energy now makes up 40 percent of the total installed capacity worldwide. Despite the progress, IRENA says renewables must hit 1,000 gigawatts annually to keep the Paris climate agreement alive.
What now?
COP28 — the big climate conference — will be held in December in Dubai. It will zero in on “global stocktake,” which examines national actions and assesses the collective progress — a way to ensure countries fulfill their promises. Paris aims to keep temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit). Scientists say we are nearing the 1.2 degrees mark and on track to hit 2.7 degrees. Before Paris, the trend was 4 degrees Celsius.
The folks at IRENA want to put the pedal to the metal — to increase economies of scale in installations and manufacturing, which will put further downward pressure on wind turbines and solar panels, and also such things as hydrogen power, energy storage and heat pumps. Since 2010, wind and solar energy prices have fallen from 70 percent to 80 percent.
“We are losing a race against time,” said Achim Steiner, the United Nations’ Development Program administrator. “Before the 2000s, the developing states had fewer than 10 climate-related disasters a year, and now it is 20.” He says that wind and solar power generate jobs and energy access, pointing out that Kenya and Costa Rica produce 90 percent to 100 percent of their electricity with renewables.
The issue is political leadership — not technology.
The richer countries have the resources to enforce more rigid climate rules and the economic base to deploy new technologies. Developing nations have a more challenging time. The big news out of COP27 was the creation of a loss-and-damage fund to help pay for better roads, bridges and buildings for emerging countries. Indeed, 138 countries with less than 1 percent of annual carbon-dioxide emissions are at the mercy of 20 nations that make up 80 percent of those releases.
Take India, which relies on coal to fuel 55 percent of its energy mix: It plans to secure 450 gigawatts of wind, solar and hydro by 2030 and to hit net zero by 2070. But it needs $160 billion annually to do this.
“COP27 delivered against all odds. Those who contribute the least bear the brunt” of climate destruction, said Sameh Shoukry, COP27 president. “But climate finance remains an area that is most disconcerting. Developing countries have promised to deliver” — a vow they must keep to maintain trust and commitment among partners.
IRENA says the legacy energy infrastructures favor oil and gas development, making the Paris goals elusive. But the dividends will pay for decades if you build the foundation to harness wind and solar.
An excellent example is the United Arab Emirates: Oil made up 70 percent of its economy in 2009, and today, it is 30 percent. UAE’s Masdar plans on 100 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity and 1 million tons of green hydrogen development annually by 2030. Ryazan al-Mubarak, the UAE’s climate change champion, said the Paris Prize is within reach — but grueling.
She said the best one-two punch is more renewables and worldwide rainforest preservation. Indeed, rainforests are natural carbon-dioxide vacuums — the most immediate answer to climate change. Rainforest nations have offset 9 gigatons of carbon dioxide since 2005. The task is to make them worth more alive than dead or used for timbering or farming.
“Commitments are meaningless without a plan. We will enable actions and hold all actors to account,” creating a paradigm shift — “sector by sector and region by region,” says Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Heading off the worst climate change effects requires investing in renewables and rainforest preservation. That’s a small price compared to the alternatives — economic devastation and the resulting mass migration.
