In a move motivated by a desire to firm up support for his flailing reelection campaign, President Biden announced a “temporary pause” on liquified natural gas exports almost a year ago. 

Referencing the climate denialism of Republicans and the need to “heed the calls of young people and frontline communities,” he ordered the Department of Energy to study the economic and environmental effects of LNG exports. In the waning days of the administration, DOE has issued a report designed to complicate Donald Trump’s desire to end the pause and unleash American energy.

The law is clear. For countries that do not have a free trade agreement with the United States, DOE “shall” authorize exports unless it finds that they are not consistent with the public interest (exports to countries with free trade are automatically approved). In the last decade, even though there have been numerous delays and bureaucratic hurdles, DOE has never denied an export application. There is a good reason for that result, as the overwhelming evidence supports that LNG exports are in the public interest. The exports are good for the economy, good for national security, and good for the environment.

Enter the pre-Christmas release of the DOE report. While it doesn’t go so far as to conclude that future LNG export licenses are inconsistent with the public interest, it does set up a series of arguments that LNG opponents will use to make their case. When you look at each point, it’s clear that the report is pushing a solution in search of a problem.

For economic effects, the DOE report projects that residential natural gas prices could increase between 3 percent and 7 percent in 2050.  Earlier this year, a Center for Strategic and International Studies study concluded that the massive growth in LNG exports since 2016 has had no correlation to domestic gas prices. Last month, the government’s Energy Information Administration reported that domestic prices reached all-time lows. This is while U.S. natural gas consumption reached record highs.

Moreover, an S&P Global team led by noted energy expert Dan Yergin just released a study demonstrating the enormous economic effect of LNG. It found that over the past decade, LNG exports contributed $400 billion to the U.S. gross domestic product — and supported hundreds of thousands of well-paying jobs. It forecast an additional $1.3 trillion in GDP, $2.5 trillion in business revenue, and $165 billion in tax revenue by 2040. It also said that as of 2023, LNG exports generated higher revenues than U.S. corn and soybean exports, double U.S. movie and TV-related exports, and half of U.S. semiconductor exports. Would we ever conceive of shutting down corn or movie exports?

For national security, the DOE report acknowledges that Europe is the primary destination for U.S. LNG. It projects that Asia may eventually take the lead. It also warns that in 2050, China will likely have the highest LNG imports of any country. These trends demonstrate the geopolitical case for LNG exports. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the United States helped allies such as Germany loosen the Kremlin’s grip on energy supplies. With only 10 percent of Europe’s gas needs met by its production, those countries need U.S. LNG. We should do whatever we can to ensure they do not return to dependence on Russia.

As for China, if policymakers now or in the future decide that it is counterproductive for the United States to supply them with natural gas, they can institute such limitations. In the meantime, we know that China will import LNG from somewhere. Wouldn’t we rather be in the driver’s seat, having leverage for any future economic or military conflict? And U.S. energy exports elsewhere in Asia effectively enhance national security interests in this increasingly vital area.

Then, we have environmental considerations. DOE estimates that U.S. LNG exports will displace more renewables than coal globally. LNG has already replaced coal in many places, and that trend will likely continue. With world coal use expected to reach an all-time high in 2024, this becomes even more important. 

A recent study showed that if there were no U.S. LNG exports, they would be replaced with 54 percent coal, 34 percent fuel oil and 7.8 percent renewable sources. In addition, U.S. natural gas is produced under the most optimal environmental conditions compared to other sources of supply, with American industry having spent hundreds of billions of dollars implementing technologies to reduce emissions and developing cleaner fuel cycles.

The DOE study may serve its purpose of providing fodder for opponents of LNG exports. However, the record is clear, and it’s not going to change. Whether it’s the economy, global energy security, or combatting climate change, LNG exports have demonstrated their value. The DOE report is a solution looking to fix a problem that doesn’t exist.