In issues management, you often reach your goal more effectively by not taking a straight-line approach. Republicans should apply this to their abortion strategy, or they may face the same disappointment they had in 2022 after the midterm elections.
The goal of the pro-life movement is to outlaw abortion using the power of government. The message being sent repeatedly since the Dobbs decision returned the question to the states: Is this highly unlikely to happen? A more achievable goal would be to create a culture of life by changing hearts and minds using a pro-family agenda.
In Virginia in 2023, Gov. Glenn Youngkin failed to win control of the state Senate and lost control of the House of Delegates by promising that with a Republican majority, he would pass a 15-week ban on abortion. The New York Times reported that “abortion seemed to be the deciding issue.”
Youngkin, like many Republicans, was blinded by “top-line thinking” when formulating his strategy. In a 2023 Marist Poll, 67 percent of the 1,300 people polled either wanted abortion made illegal or supported a ban on abortion after the first trimester. In the same poll, only 22 percent favored abortion on demand. An AP/NORC poll found that 73 percent of adults favored abortion up until six weeks of pregnancy.
Interpreting these data has proven to be “fool’s gold” for many Republican strategists who are recommending their clients enact restrictions on abortion in the early stages of pregnancy. Florida, which had a 15-week ban, passed a six-week ban in 2023, which was affirmed by its Supreme Court. The issue will be on the ballot in 2024 when voters will decide “Amendment 4, which would preserve the right to abortion in the Florida Constitution and protect abortion until about 24 weeks of pregnancy.”
State referenda restricting or outlawing abortion have failed in red states. In 2022, voters in Kansas voted to keep abortion legal, and in 2023, Ohio voters codified abortion rights in its constitution. Restrictive referenda have also failed in South Carolina and Nebraska. In 2024, as many as 14 states could have abortion on the ballot. This may not be good news for Republicans based on the issue’s history.
President Biden’s campaign is embracing abortion as a key issue, and it recently released its second ad featuring abortion. In the ad, Biden says, “In 2016, Donald Trump ran to overturn Roe v. Wade. Now, in 2024, he’s running to pass a national ban on a woman’s right to choose.” Biden promised to return America to Roe v. Wade as the law of the land if re-elected. Trump wants the issue kept at the state level.
Based on what has transpired since Dobbs, passing laws and amending state constitutions do not seem like a winning strategy for achieving the pro-life agenda.
Buried in a Pew Research poll conducted in 2022 is compelling data. When asked should a woman be punished for having an illegal abortion, 50 percent responded no and only 14 percent supported jail time. This creates a dilemma for Republicans regarding how laws that outlaw abortion would be enforced.
Abortion, as an issue, is what it has always been politically — a fight for the hearts and minds of the American people. Passing laws or amending state constitutions will not change hearts and minds but rather serve to harden positions on the extremes of the issue. Promoting a culture of life needs to be organic, built out of the strong family unit, and freely accepted rather than imposed by the force of law and the power of government.
Strategic management is about setting and achieving goals. This requires defining foundational issues before you create a strategy and critically assessing all your assumptions. One assumption is that pro-family and pro-life are conjoined and, therefore, can be pursued simultaneously as one goal. The issues are more likely symbiotic and sequential, with pro-family being the foundational issue on which to build success.
In short, pro-family culture supports the pro-life agenda. This is challenging for many Republicans who do not support more government spending on social programs. Still, it can be framed as strong families combat many challenges facing our society on which we are spending money and not getting results — pro-family is a fiscally responsible solution.
The abortion debate is entrenched in rights. The pro-family agenda can help move the needle toward responsibility using positive messaging that most Americans will endorse at this critical juncture for our civilization.
