Supporting free trade is out of fashion. In rich countries, it has been blamed for job losses and all but abandoned by policymakers. Over the last century, trade had been increasing, seen as a percentage of the entire global economy, but this peaked around the global financial crisis and is now declining.
This is regrettable because ensuring freer trade turns out to be one of the world’s best development policies.
It has been known for centuries that trade lifts incomes because it allows a nation to specialize and produce effectively what it does best. One study finds that trade makes us all 27 percent richer, meaning that countries, on average, have incomes more than one-fourth higher compared to a world without trade.
Trade doesn’t just lift average incomes. It also helps lift the world’s poor out of abject poverty. One of the most cited recent studies finds that the incomes of the poorest 20 percent grow as fast as the average.
We have seen this clearly in the world’s two most populous nations, China and India. As China’s trade soared, incomes rose sevenfold and extreme poverty declined from 28 percent to near-zero today. India had experienced a similar if more muted trajectory: When tariffs were reduced from a stifling 56 percent in 1990 to 6 percent in 2020, average incomes rose almost fourfold, and extreme poverty declined from 22 percent to 1.8 percent. We have seen similar trajectories for fast-growing countries like South Korea, Chile and Vietnam. Prosperity from trade really is shared.
It is little wonder, then, that achieving freer trade is one of the promises that world leaders have signed up for with the Sustainable Development Goals for 2030. Unfortunately, the world is failing on this and most other promises.
It is no secret why. Leaders promised everything to everyone, and the list of promises runs to 169 targets. Having 169 priorities is like having none at all. The list has many core targets such as increased trade, eradicating infant mortality, better schooling, and eliminating war and climate change. But simultaneously, it includes well-intentioned but much more peripheral targets like boosting recycling, more urban parks and promoting lifestyles in harmony with nature.
This year the world is at halftime for the Sustainable Development Goals, but we are nowhere near halfway. Clearly, the world can’t do everything, so it is time to identify and prioritize the most crucial promises. My think tank, the Copenhagen Consensus, is doing precisely that: Together with several Nobel laureates and more than a hundred leading economists, we have been working for years to identify where additional money can do the most good.
New, peer-reviewed research shows why more trade should be at the top of the global agenda. The research considers the problems of job losses highlighted by rich-world politicians. It maps out how much additional cost freer trade imposes on these workers through losing their jobs, needing to re-skill (often to lower-paying jobs), or leaving the job market altogether.
But the study also uncovers the advantages of more trade, such as higher incomes and the consequent improvements for the world’s poor. This makes it possible to weigh both the costs and benefits of freer trade. The study is groundbreaking because it offers the first attempt ever to establish costs and benefits not just globally but for the world’s rich and poor.
The economic model shows that if we grow global trade by 5 percent, the present-day cost for all workers worldwide into the future would be $1 trillion. This cost certainly justifies the concern of populist politicians. Yet, the benefits to mankind turn out to be $11 trillion, making this a very good deal for the world.
The people who are hurt by free trade should be helped more by governments worldwide, but the significant surplus from freer trade not only provides a pot of money to do so but also presents an enormous development opportunity to raise incomes and lift people out of poverty.
The new model also shows who bears the costs and demonstrates why rich countries have cooled on trade. Because rich countries make up the larger part of the global economy, they gain 60 percent of the $11 trillion. But they suffer more than 90 percent of the costs. While this validates some political concerns, it misses the larger picture: rich countries gain $7 for every dollar of costs.
And it entirely neglects what an excellent opportunity trade is for the poorer half of the world. Its costs are pretty minimal at $15 billion, but benefits run far beyond a trillion dollars. For each dollar of loss, the economists find a phenomenal $95 of long-term benefits, increasing incomes and driving down poverty.
If we are serious about improving the world, we can’t promise everything. We have to do the most efficient policies first, and more trade is one of the most remarkable ways to deliver better lives and incomes.
