The climate crisis is leading to more migration — not just in the United States but worldwide. In the United States, Customs and Border Protection said it had encountered more than 2.2 million migrants at the southern border in 2023.
Warming creates rogue weather conditions — everything from hurricanes to floods to droughts. And governments that can’t insulate themselves feel the repercussions. In the worst cases, their citizens seek protection in other parts of the homeland or new countries altogether. No one is immune from climate change — not even the richest among us.
“People lose hope and start to migrate,” said Lucky Medina, minister of energy, natural resources and environment for Honduras.
About 500 people a day are leaving Honduras for greener pastures. It’s a byproduct of 13 years of dictatorship that neglected the needs of the people. But that could change now that a democratically elected government is in place, which has elevated climate change and forest protection as a priority.
Medina was in New York City with the president of Honduras, Xiomara Castro, for Climate Week. They plan to curb climate change while creating jobs in their country. But it requires the global community to buy in — to purchase its government-issued carbon offsets.
Indeed, Honduras will issue 10 million so-called Internationally Transferrable Mitigation Outcomes, or ITMOs. Carbon-neutral or carbon-negative countries can sell those Paris-approved credits to carbon-positive governments. And the market for those offsets is potentially huge, given that every rich country has exceeded its carbon budget.
At the same time, about 17 rainforest nations are doing their job by keeping their trees standing and soaking up carbon dioxide emissions. Most of those are low-lying nations that are suffering the consequences of warming. Conversely, they could give farmers and loggers unfettered access and hurt the climate cause.
At the December U.N. Climate Change Conference in Dubai, 196 countries will submit their “global stocktake” — a snapshot of their promises under the Paris Climate Agreement. Their first steps are to deploy more renewables and energy-efficient technologies. But that won’t get them to net zero right now.
It’s OK to buy offsets from the rainforest nations. It provides emerging countries with the funds to preserve their rainforests. And that creates jobs in their communities, such as tour guides and forest rangers.
For example, the United States aims to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by 25 percent by 2025 using a 2005 baseline. However, 17 percent appears more realistic. After that, its goal is to cut its carbon dioxide levels by 50 percent by 2030. Why would it not buy offsets?
Invariably, environmentalists would accuse it of greenwashing — purchasing credits instead of deploying cleaner fuels and technologies. “The idea you can buy yourself out of trouble with credits won’t wash,” said Tim Lenton, director of the Global Systems Institute at Exeter.
But no one suggests using carbon offsets instead of making tangible investments in carbon-reduction technologies.
About 74 percent of Honduras’ 10 million citizens live in poverty. Its rainforests are a critical asset, covering 56 percent of the country. Half of its population lives in or around the forests. That is why President Castro’s goal is to give Hondurans pride by creating forestry-based jobs — if the affluent countries buy their credits.
The primary source of money coming into the country is revenues from its diaspora to support families. Besides Honduras, Suriname and Belize will initially offer ITMOs.
Mass climate migration is happening. Just look at how flooding and heatwaves have displaced thousands in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. But the Global North produces most emissions while the Global South is left to cope with the aftermath.
The United States is not resistant and is enduring a border crisis — justifying the capital allocation to help Latin American countries like Honduras save their rainforests.
