The Bible verse from Ecclesiastes 1:9 reads: “What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.”
People tend to conflate “different” with “novel.” They are inclined to see history as a series of firsts rather than a progression of slightly modified nexts. The truth is that the challenges we face today are not substantially different from those we faced at the beginning of the 20th century.
During those decades, the economy was disrupted by the profound transformation brought about by the rise of an industrial economy. This shift from self-sufficient farming to cities brought on many new social challenges, including how to feed millions of people condensed into a small urban area.
Immigration reached historic levels, with many arriving from Italy, Russia, Austria-Hungary and Poland. These groups were “foreign” to Americans because they did not speak English, but they were willing to acculturate, and most did so within a generation. America needed workers, and immigrant labor was available and cheap.
Wealth in America was highly concentrated. There was, in today’s dollars, a billionaire class that included: John D. Rockefeller, Andrew Carnegie, Cornelius Vanderbilt, John Jacob Astor IV, J.P. Morgan, Jay Gould, Henry Ford and several others. At this time, there was no income tax, so the rich had outsized political influence and economic power.
At the turn of the last century, America turned to government for solutions. Driven by aggressive investigative journalism, grassroots movements and social reformers, people demanded government action to address wealth disparity, working conditions, food safety, human rights, housing and government corruption.
Theodore Roosevelt, William Taft and Woodrow Wilson would form the triad of progressive presidents. During their terms in office, antitrust laws were passed, and federal income tax, the direct election of senators, Prohibition and the right to vote for women were added to the Constitution. The Federal Reserve System was created, and workers’ rights, child labor laws and food-safety regulations were enacted.
During this period, people increasingly turned to the government to level the playing field and facilitate a more orderly transition to the new economy. The government responded by expanding its power.
Today, the disruption created by a rapidly shifting economy toward artificial intelligence and robotics is eliminating entire categories of jobs. The demand for young software developers has fallen nearly 20 percent since 2022. Overall, the demand for young college graduates seeking entry-level career-path jobs has been cut in half.
The age of first-time homebuyers is now greater than 40.
The undocumented migrants who surged across our border are severely straining the social safety net, including healthcare, schools, government food programs, and housing. In New York City, costs are expected to reach $12 billion by fiscal year 2025, for emergency housing and humanitarian relief centers.
Elon Musk may soon be the world’s first trillionaire, and there is a growing billionaire class in the United States, including Larry Ellison, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Larry Page, Jensen Huang and several more. It is estimated that the top 0.1 percent of wealthy Americans control 13.8 percent of U.S. wealth, and that the bottom 50 percent control 2.5 percent.
These trends are transforming America, and more Americans fear what the future holds. In a 2025 poll from PBS/NPR/Marist, “The U.S. is grappling with what it means to be American, who is essential to its story, who belongs, who doesn’t and which direction the country should take — all while Americans are expressing very little faith in its political leadership.”
One area of consensus in the poll is that whatever is happening poses a “threat to democracy.” Americans are deeply divided on the path forward, but it is beginning to take shape.
In 2025, we have seen the rise of socialism with the elections of Zohran Mamdani in New York and Katie Wilson in Seattle. They ran on anti-capitalist platforms to tax the rich and corporations to pay for low to no-cost services for the needy.
Socialists are now solidly positioned to challenge the old order within the Democratic Party. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York are now the faces of the new Democratic Party, which is focused on broad progressive change.
The Republican response is to rally support for capitalism while rejecting unbridled globalism and embracing an America First approach. The question is whether, driven by wealth disparities, Americans will vote in the next Progressive Era, beginning in 2026. In considerable measure, this will be determined by whether the 50 percent of Americans who control less than 3 percent of the wealth find common cause in demanding wealth redistribution using the force of government.
We have been here before, but this time the stakes seem higher because the Progressive Era, in retrospect, appears to be a series of half-measures to save capitalism from itself.