When critics compare the Trump administration’s aggressive policy toward Venezuela and the Middle East to their approach regarding nations like Myanmar, they see a contradiction.
But others, like Wesley A. Hill, a foreign policy professional and China expert with New Lines Institute, see “flexible realism.”
In Myanmar, that means prioritizing U.S. policy toward China over concerns about the current regime.
“America can easily accelerate the decline of Chinese confidence in Myanmar, which is happening organically, with a more robust foreign policy,” Hill told InsideSources.
Myanmar’s modern relationship with China has been shaped by decades of political isolation, economic necessity, and shifting power dynamics. After Myanmar’s military seized power in 1962, the country became largely cut off from the West, pushing successive governments to rely heavily on neighboring China.
China’s influence expanded significantly through large-scale infrastructure and energy projects, including oil and gas pipelines, hydropower dams, and transportation corridors linking China’s landlocked Yunnan province to the Indian Ocean.
The United States’ relationship with Myanmar has been defined by cycles of engagement and sanctions tied closely to the country’s political trajectory. After Myanmar’s military violently suppressed pro-democracy protests in 1988 and refused to honor the results of the 1990 election, Washington imposed broad economic and diplomatic sanctions aimed at pressuring the junta and supporting democratic opposition figures, including Aung San Suu Kyi. For much of the next two decades, U.S. policy focused on human rights advocacy and isolation of the military regime, sharply limiting formal ties and economic engagement.
That approach shifted during Myanmar’s political opening beginning in 2011, when the U.S. moved quickly to normalize relations in response to democratic reforms. Sanctions were eased, diplomatic relations were upgraded, and American officials promoted investment and institutional reform as Myanmar transitioned toward civilian rule.
But, the February 2021 coup reversed that progress, prompting the U.S. to reimpose targeted sanctions, suspend aid to the government, and coordinate with allies to pressure the junta, while continuing humanitarian assistance and voicing support for Myanmar’s pro-democracy movement.
In July, Secretary of State Marco Rubio signed a memorandum ordering U.S. officials to focus on congratulating the winning candidate in foreign elections and “avoid opining on the fairness or integrity of an electoral process, its legitimacy, or the democratic values of the country in question.”
The State Department has pledged to only make public statements about foreign elections if “there is a clear and compelling U.S. foreign policy interest to do so,” the memo said, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The cable marks a crucial pivot for international relations, and emerges from an outlook from the broader administration that places an emphasis on national sovereignty, both for the U.S. and for other countries. President Trump has said that he would emphasize “America First” and consequently is focused on the interests of the United States rather than intervening in the sovereignty of other countries.
“The so-called nation-builders wrecked far more nations than they built, and the interventionalists were intervening in complex societies that they didn’t even understand themselves,” Trump said in a speech in May. “They told you how to do it, but they had no idea how to do it themselves.” The State Department’s new policy of only offering post-electoral congratulations gives the U.S. flexibility in direct and indirect discussions.
“Issuing an election statement isn’t to acknowledge or even claim that Myanmar was a free and fair election; it’s to say, this is an encouraging development,” Hill said. “It’s a commitment to the process of an election that sees civil society is worth the engagement.”
Instead of viewing an election as a standalone measure of a country’s trajectory, examining electoral trends can reveal how anti-junta factions and the broader public are positioning themselves for greater influence.
“It’s always better to have a flawed election than it is not to have one or to have a delayed election,” Hill said, adding that the State Department’s policy shows the U.S. is willing to engage with flexibility and view the elections – sham though they might be – as a “baby step” toward separating Myanmar from China.
For comparisons to Venezuela, “China decided that Venezuela was basically a black hole and they weren’t going to continue throwing money into it,” Hill said.
“Myanmar is an immediate neighbor, and they’re willing to cooperate with China, and have for decades on variety of issues. That doesn’t mean China has unreserved confidence.
Think of it as similar to North Korea. China doesn’t like them and they don’t do everything the Beijing tells them to do, but China is afraid of the alternatives in terms of regime collapse and refugees.”